Since peaking in August, prices for solar modules for distributed generation (DG) projects such as rooftop, commercial, industrial, and community solar in the United States have declined by 7.
Figure 4 presents PV module prices in various countries under global and national scenarios from 2024 to 2030. In the 2030 global scenario, PV module prices are projected to be 0.14 USD/W in the United States, 0.61CNY/W in China, 0.09 EUR/W in the EU, and 23.97 JPY/W in Japan.
How will PV decoupling impact global supply chains in 2030?
Projections show that by 2030, countries adopting decoupling measures (gradual decoupling scenario) will see PV module prices approximately 20.4%–46.0% higher and installation capacity reduced by about 14.8%–19.1% compared to those relying on global supply chains.
Can decoupling improve solar supply chain security?
Over the past two decades, the global supply chain has significantly reduced the cost of solar PV products enabling widespread adoption. However, many countries are now implementing decoupling measures to enhance supply chain security and boost local economies.
Both are measured on logarithmic scales, and the trend follows a straight line. That means the fall in cost has been exponential. Costs have fallen by around 20% every time the global cumulative capacity doubles. Over four decades, solar power has transformed from one of the most expensive electricity sources to the cheapest in many countries.
The results indicated that global PV supply chains have significantly reduced costs for various countries. Nonetheless, the study's characterization of the mechanisms driving PV module cost reductions is relatively simplistic, with at least two areas for improvement.
From 2013 to January 2024, the spot price of PV modules fell by 84%, 1,2 making PV power cheaper than fossil fuel generation in many regions and establishing it as the lowest-cost power source. 3 The significant cost reduction has spurred rapid growth in PV installations.